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AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue and EPS beat: Q3 revenue $1.055B vs ~$1.044B consensus; non-GAAP EPS $1.86 vs ~$1.64 consensus; Adjusted EBITDA outperformed consensus as well. Strength came from high-growth Security and accelerating Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS), with Delivery trends stabilizing . Estimates from S&P Global marked with asterisks: Revenue ~$1.044B*, EPS ~$1.64*, EBITDA ~$431M*.
- Margin outperformance and mix: Non-GAAP operating margin rose to 31% (up 2ppt YoY) on disciplined execution; GAAP operating margin was 16% (up 9ppt YoY, aided by non-recurring 3Q24 restructuring charge) .
- Guidance raised: FY25 revenue to $4.178–$4.198B (from $4.135–$4.205B), FY25 non-GAAP EPS to $6.93–$7.13 (from $6.60–$6.80). Q4 guide: revenue $1.065–$1.085B; non-GAAP EPS $1.65–$1.85; non-GAAP op margin 28–30% .
- Strategic catalyst: Launch of Akamai Inference Cloud (NVIDIA-powered) with early traction and hyperscaler wins; management framed inference at the edge as a secular growth driver for CIS and attach opportunities for API Security/AI Firewall .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad beat vs Street and guidance: “Results came in above expectations for revenue, margin, and EPS” (non-GAAP EPS $1.86, +17% YoY; $0.20 above high-end guidance) .
- CIS acceleration and strategic wins: CIS revenue $81M (+39% YoY), with multi-year hyperscaler renewals and new logos; management expects CIS ARR growth 40–45% in CC by year-end .
- Security momentum: Security revenue $568M (+10% YoY), with high-growth API Security and Zero Trust solutions growing ~35% YoY; Gartner Customer’s Choice recognition bolsters positioning .
Quotes:
- CEO: “We were particularly pleased by…momentum in Cloud Infrastructure Services, where revenue growth accelerated to 39% year-over-year” .
- CEO on Inference Cloud: “By moving AI inference from the core to the edge, we are unlocking a new generation of applications that can sense, reason and act in real-time” .
What Went Wrong
- Delivery remains a headwind: Delivery revenue $306M (-4% YoY), though trends “slightly better than expected” and stabilizing .
- Elevated capital intensity: Capex was $224M (21% of revenue) as the company invests to scale CIS/Inference Cloud; CFO expects Q4 capex at ~16% of revenue .
- Upcoming opex seasonality and FX: Q4 opex guided higher due to seasonal commissions; FX to be -$5M sequential headwind in Q4 (but +$11M YoY benefit) .
Financial Results
Headline P&L vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter
Segment Revenue Breakdown
Geographic Revenue Breakdown
KPIs and Cash Metrics
Q3 2025 Actual vs Street Consensus
Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO strategic message: “By moving AI inference from the core to the edge, we are unlocking a new generation of applications that can sense, reason and act in real-time” .
- CEO on differentiation: “The top three cloud providers in the US are all now using Akamai Cloud Infrastructure Services… one signed an expanded multi-year renewal” .
- CFO on performance: “Non-GAAP EPS…$0.20 above the high end of our guidance range” driven by higher-than-expected revenue and execution .
- CFO on Q4 setup: “Q4 opex…higher than in Q3…the main driver is the seasonal jump in sales commissions…”; FX -$5M sequential .
Q&A Highlights
- Hyperscaler adoption and deal sizes: All three major US cloud providers now using CIS; initial inference deals may be $50–$100M with capex pacing to demand; potential for margin uplift at scale .
- Delivery outlook: Seasonality supports Q4; pricing pressure moderating; fewer competitors; trends could remain flat to down low single-digits, with potential upside as gaming returns and device refreshes .
- Security attach to AI: API Security and AI Firewall expected to secure inference workloads; strong interest, early customers and POCs underway .
- Geographic strength: International, especially APJ, leading compute and security momentum; US growth impacted by anniversaries of NGO contracts .
- Guidance clarity: Security around ~10% growth for the year; compute slightly under ~15% for 2025 due to timing, but momentum improving; Q4 non-GAAP EPS $1.65–$1.85 .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 beats vs consensus: Revenue $1,054.6M vs ~$1,043.9M*; non-GAAP EPS $1.86 vs ~$1.64*; Adjusted EBITDA $458.4M vs ~$430.7M* .
- Forward estimates: Q4 revenue consensus ~$1,076.1M* and EPS ~$1.75*; Q1 2026 revenue ~$1,063.9M* and EPS ~$1.73*, which may drift upward on the back of raised FY EPS and stronger CIS/AI narrative.
Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Strong quarter across revenue, margins, and EPS; clear beat vs consensus and guidance, driven by Security and accelerating CIS. Expect estimate revisions upward, especially on FY EPS and Q4 .
- Inference Cloud launch with NVIDIA establishes an emerging growth leg; hyperscaler adoption and large initial deal sizes underscore edge inference differentiation and potential operating leverage .
- Delivery stabilizing with moderated pricing pressure and healthier traffic; Q4 seasonality should help, but management appropriately cautious on visibility .
- Near term watch items: Q4 opex seasonal step-up; FX -$5M sequential headwind; capex intensity remains elevated as CIS scales, though capex/revenue set to ease to ~16% in Q4 .
- Security flywheel: API Security run-rate targeted ~ $100M by YE25; strong attach to AI agentic workloads and AI Firewall positioning create multi-year expansion opportunity .
- Balance sheet/capital allocation: $1.813B cash+securities; no buybacks in Q3 after $800M repurchases YTD; remain opportunistic in M&A/repurchases .
- Medium-term thesis: Mix shift to Security and CIS, margin discipline, and edge inference leadership support durable earnings growth and multiple resiliency amid CDN industry consolidation .